What’s driving populism? It isn’t the economy, stupid

ASSOCIATED PRESS,

DARRELL BRICKER AND JOHN IBBITSON

PUBLISHED FEBRUARY 9, 2018UPDATED 3 DAYS AGO

Darrell Bricker and John Ibbitson are the authors of The Big Shift: The Seismic Change in Canadian Politics, Business, and Culture and What It Means for Our Future and the forthcoming book Empty Planet: The Shock of Global Population Decline.

In November of last year, at the Halifax International Security Forum – the gathering of about 300 politicians, military leaders, diplomats and other experts that has emerged as perhaps the most influential annual conference on global security – a single, oppressive topic dominated the talk in the hallways and over drinks in the bars: the rise of populism.

The finest minds in the fields of defence and foreign affairs from around the world grappled with the alarming reality of populations gripped by an incoherent, rage-fuelled nihilism that rejected elites on both the left and the right. A whole lot of people simply want to blow it all up, sink it, drain it, be done with it and be done with them – them being the people at the forum.

The smart minds that gathered in Halifax believed they knew the cause of the rage that threatens to undermine the architecture of the Western alliance: economic inequality. Lower-middle-class white men and women in Rust Belt states who voted for Donald Trump or unemployed industrial workers in the English Midlands who voted for Brexit or working-class Poles who voted for the Law and Justice party wanted to get back at the people in the corner offices who had sacrificed their welfare by offshoring their jobs to cheap foreign labour.

These assessments were all more wrong than right. Yes, there is some correlation between the economic insecurities of voters in economically depressed regions and support for populist causes.

But the greater source of combustion is nativism: a fear of foreigners coming into your community and undermining your culture and way of life.

Populist reaction “is about ethnic shifts,” said Eric Kaufmann, the B.C.-raised political scientist at the University of London and the author of the forthcoming book Whiteshift: Immigration, Populism and the Myth of Majority Decline.

He believes cultural, not economic, insecurity is the driving force behind populism. He does not view people worried about immigration as white supremacists or ethnic nationalists. “But they are looking to slow down the rate of ethnic shifting.”

Peter Loewen agrees. The director of the School of Public Policy and Governance at University of Toronto has been researching the drivers of populist sentiment in nine countries. The dominant driver? “It’s the perception of immigrants taking away jobs, it’s not about economic uncertainty, rising inequality, whatever.” And not just jobs. “It’s about threatening a way of life. In a word, it is nativism.”

Some people believe Canada is more enlightened than other countries, more accepting of new arrivals, and, in the main, we are. But this country, too, remains vulnerable to a demagogic politician who ignites nativist resentment for his own political gain.

To douse the kindling that could feed such a flame, Canadian elites need to address fears of cultural dilution by nativists. And although this may seem counterintuitive, conservatives may be better able to make the case than progressives.

Where five types of Trump voters stand on immigration and race

American Preservationists

Staunch Conservatives

The Disengaged

Anti-Elites

Free Marketeers

% who say racial identity isvery important% who support temporary banon Muslim immigration% who support making legalimmigration ‘much harder’% of total Trump base67857420%39825231312025534112419171410256739313417

THE GLOBE AND MAIL, SOURCE: VOTER STUDY GROUP ANALYSIS, JUNE 2017

DATA

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Category	American Preservationists	Staunch Conservatives	The Disengaged	Anti-Elites	Free Marketeers
% of total Trump base	20	31	5	19	25
% who support making legal immigration ‘much harder’	74	52	25	24	10
% who support temporary ban on Muslim immigration	85	82	20	11	14
% who say racial identity is very important	67	39	31	34	17

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WHERE FIVE TYPES OF TRUMP VOTERS STAND ON IMMIGRATION AND RACE

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